The big sales have begun1,2, and yesterday made the peak dearer: the RBI raised rates for the first time since 20233, and Mumbai's air cargo is running days late since its freighters moved to Navi Mumbai4.
Green the sale season as usual, which can still be busy
Amber something beyond the season is slowing freight
Red something is stopping freight across a state or a route
North
Green
The march is over and Delhi is still busy: its roads ran 11 points above usual yesterday6, after 17 on Tuesday, when the INDIA bloc marched through central Delhi7. Is that the sale, or something more? Too early to say, so it stays Green.
West
Green
Kandla passed 100 million tonnes for the year on Tuesday, 51 days sooner than last year and the fastest it has ever got there8. The queue shows it: 60 ships were waiting off the port that day, against about 50 on a usual day since July9. Busy, not stuck, so the West stays Green.
South
Green
Chennai's DP World terminal had its busiest month in a decade in September10, and the port's new Port Setu truck tracking should buy freight stations one extra trip in six11. Exporters still face Colombo: ships skipping it leave boxes from Tuticorin, Cochin and Chennai behind12.
East
Amber
Odisha's bandh runs 6 am to 6 pm today with autos off13, and by 7:30 Congress workers had stopped the Sambalpur–Puri train at Sambalpur, though no highway blockade had been reported14. NH-16 into Kolkata normally carries about 7,000 heavy trucks a day at the Debra plaza15. If Kolkata's hubs back up, the Northeast feels it most: by my estimate, 30% of the parcels crossing Kolkata have no other road15. Delhi–Kolkata truck rentals ran 13% above last year in September16.
Northeast
Amber
NH-10 into Sikkim stays shut at night till 15th October, the one road here I'm still watching.
Central
Green
Rain over Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh ends by Friday17, and nothing beyond the season turned up there. I'll take that.
The RBI raised the repo rate by a quarter point to 5.5% yesterday, its first hike since February 2023, and the RBI governor said the next move can only be a hike or a pause3. It lands on a busy network: diesel demand rose 4.9% in September18, Tata's heavy-truck sales were up 44%19, and truck rentals finished the month above last year on every route Shriram tracks, Bengaluru–Mumbai up 11%16.
The exposure sits with whoever is building Diwali stock on borrowed money, and with fleets that bought trucks on loans this year.
2Navi Mumbai, and the three-day wait
Mumbai's air cargo, exports and imports
Amber · High cost of delay · High confidence
Mumbai's two airports handled 27% of India's international air freight in August20. Its freighters moved from the main airport to the new one at Navi Mumbai on 1st August, and on 5th October Challenge Group suspended its flights there, saying the setup isn't reliable yet21. Forwarders report imports held 72 hours or more, too few dollies and covered bays, and reroutes adding 20–25% to costs4. Adani's eight airports, both Mumbai ones included, have stopped Russia-bound cargo, stranding about 150 tonnes of pharma, machinery and spares22.
So India's second-busiest air gateway is learning on the job in its busiest month. The exposure sits with pharma and electronics shippers whose Mumbai bookings have no slack for three days.
3More boxes, and fewer ships
Containers through the major ports, exports and imports
Amber · High cost of delay · High confidence
Boxes at JNPA waiting for trains inland, TEUs23,24
5 Oct3,835
7 Oct2,526
Major ports handled 12% more containers from April to September than a year earlier, and JNPA 18% more, on the ports association's provisional count25. Is the quay the bottleneck? Not this week: on 7th October JNPA's yard was half full, trucks turned round in 1.4 hours, and 2,526 boxes were waiting for trains inland24, down from 3,835 two days earlier23. The squeeze is actually on the water. C.H. Robinson expects India–North America to stay short of vessel space until at least mid- to late October, with Colombo, Nhava Sheva and Mundra congested, and warns of rolled bookings and longer lead times12.
So a box can clear the gate in hours and still miss its ship. The exposure sits with exporters whose US orders came off the line late, because a late box is the first one rolled.
The lanes I'm watching
NH-16 through OdishaAmber
East coast trunk, Kolkata–Chennai
Today's bandh, so Amber rather than Red until a report shows the highway itself blocked, and Amber again tomorrow while the trucks clear.
NH-10 Siliguri–GangtokAmber
Sikkim's one and only trunk road
Shut to all vehicles 9 pm to 6 am on the Sevoke–Rangpo stretch till 15th October, and again 26th October–5th November26.
NH-44 Jammu–SrinagarAmber
Kashmir's all-weather link
Single lane at Udhampur and between Marog and Nachlana, tankers past Chenani only from 5 pm to 6 am, and night travel discouraged27.
Measured this morning
City roads against usual, daily, 1–7 Oct6amber = 10+ over
Kolkata and Delhi stand out: 10+ points over usual on 7 Oct, Kolkata on 5 of the last 7 days and Delhi on 4.
Kolkata+20
Delhi+11
Mumbai+9
Chennai+9
Ahmedabad+6
Bengaluru+5
Pune+4
Hyderabad+4
Kochi+3
Jaipur+2
How I rate this, and what I can't see
I rate against the season, because a sale week is never going to look like a quiet week in April, right? A Red road drags down the hubs at both ends, and a hub stays Amber about two days after its cause clears, longer after a Red. Air shows up only with measured numbers (AAI, WorldACD). Confidence is High when the facts are dated and primary or measured, Medium when they rest on a proxy or a forecast. If I am wrong, we'll find out in the subsequent weeks.
Built from public sources only. The ratings are my judgement on the likelihood of on-time delivery or cost-impact, not measured service levels or actual cost estimates. Map boundaries: DataMeet, CC BY 4.0.