It is the week leading up to Dussehra in India: Amazon's sale opens tonight1, and tomorrow, Flipkart starts their early access2. Most of India looks pretty much like you'd expect around Dussehra - stretched, but fine3, except the east. Odisha shuts for a bandh tomorrow4. Kolkata keeps goods vehicles out on Saturday and curbs them all the way to 27th October (Tuesday)5. And the sea routes out of India into the Gulf are still shut. On Monday, 11 Indian sailors were reported hurt6.
How's each region holding up?
Green the sale season as usual, which can still be busy
Amber something beyond the season is slowing freight
Red something is stopping freight across a state or a route
North
Green
Delhi's roads ran 17 points above usual yesterday7, likely due to the INDIA bloc's march through central Delhi8. Is this more than the strain we expect for the season? Too early to say, so it stays Green.
West
Green
Apart from seasonal effects, things look steady. The port looks fine too - JNPA's trucks were in and out in about an hour and a half on Tuesday morning9.
South
Green
The usual sale-week strain is expected in Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Chennai. IMD now sees a low forming over the Andaman Sea around 13th October, with a low chance of a depression in the central Bay around 15th10.
East
Red
Tomorrow's Odisha bandh comes with blockades in the mining belts to stop mineral transport4. This is followed by Saturday's truck ban in Kolkata. Congress has also promised a seven-day mining blockade after Dussehra, but the dates are not confirmed11. The bit that actually worries me is the trend: after each sale opening in the last four years, West Bengal's logistics helpline searches have gone up 2.2, 2.5, 3.8 and then 6 times12.
Northeast
Amber
NH-10 into Sikkim is shut at night from tonight. The Silchar road on the Barak Valley side is expected to see heavy rains today.
Central
Green
Nothing to report beyond the usual seasonal strain. Pretty boring, but in a good way.
Decisions to make
Sale volume lands on every metro hub at once, starting tonight1,2. Whatever backlog one carries into tomorrow stays for the whole peak, and there is no respite after it to clear the hubs. How much extra sort and linehaul do you run this week?
The east stops twice in the first three days of the sale - Odisha's bandh, then Kolkata's Mahalaya truck ban - and from 13th October, trucks serving Kolkata port get four hours a day, and none during the immersions5. With curbs that long, going early is the least risky bet here. Which eastern loads move before the bandh on 8th October (Thursday), and which Diwali-critical imports have to clear Kolkata port before the curbs start on 13th October (Tuesday)?
The Gulf route is shut, and westbound air and ocean space is tight going into peak13. Waiting for prices to drop sounds nice. May be they will, but I wouldn't bet Diwali orders on it. How much Europe and US space do exporters commit for peak-season orders while some is still available?
Dates to watch
7 Oct12 Oct19 Oct26 Oct2 Nov
Sales open: Amazon, then Flipkart Wed 7 Oct · Thu 8 Oct
Odisha bandh Thu 8 Oct
Kolkata Mahalaya truck ban Sat 10 Oct
Kolkata Puja curbs and immersions 13–27 Oct
NH-10 night closures 7–15 Oct · 26 Oct–5 Nov
Delhi's BS-IV exemption ends Sat 31 Oct
Wed 7 Oct · Thu 8 Oct Sales open: Amazon, then Flipkart
Thu 8 Oct Odisha bandh
Sat 10 Oct Kolkata Mahalaya truck ban
13–27 Oct Kolkata Puja curbs and immersions
7–15 Oct · 26 Oct–5 Nov NH-10 night closures
Sat 31 Oct Delhi's BS-IV exemption ends
Network Insights
1The first 72 hours
High confidence
Helpline searches in sale weeks, times a normal week
2022202320242025
Kolkata2.2x2.5x3.8x6x
Chennai1.5x1.4x1.6x2.2x
Delhi1.7x1.2x1.4x1.9x
Bengaluru1.4x1.8x1.5x1.8x
Hyderabad1.4x1.8x2.8x1.4x
Mumbai1.4x1.4x1.4x1.4x
In the four weeks after each of the last four sale openings, courier-helpline searches went up 1.2 to 1.9 times in Delhi, Maharashtra and Karnataka, and up to 2.8 times in Telangana3. This year, Flipkart claims to have added more than 900 festive delivery hubs14 and 2.5 lakh seasonal job openings15. Whether they get filled in time to clear backlogs before the sale surge kicks in is yet to be seen.
Backlog is like credit-card debt: whatever you carry into Thursday collects interest every day of the peak. Except, nobody gives you a loan in sale week - no spare riders, no spare trucks, everyone buying the same capacity. So outside the east, the first 72 hours decide the sale.
About 4 ships crossed Hormuz on 4th October. Before the war, the number was about 85 a day16. On Monday a projectile hit a tanker there and injured 12 of its crew6. India–Middle East rates are up 25–40% since late August17.
The exposure sits in every Gulf contract priced before late August.
3Everyone's going west
Europe and the US, by sea and by air
Amber · High cost of delay · High confidence
Maersk's peak-season surcharge on contract boxes from northwest India to the US East Coast is $7,150 from 2nd October18. International air freight through Indian airports was up 15.5% YoY in August19, and India–US air tonnage is 15% up, with rates 7% higher in a single week20. Everyone seems to be going west.
So the space gets dearer just as the Christmas orders need it. The exposure sits with exporters whose peak orders still have nothing booked.
Nayara did, raising diesel by ₹3 a litre at 7,108 outlets from 3rd October, its second rise this year22. The state retailers, who run over 90% of India's pumps, haven't moved, though ICRA estimated they lost about ₹9 a litre on diesel in September21. And the Centre's diesel excise has been nil since March, so there's no duty left to cut23. In May, more than 68 transport unions in Delhi-NCR had been on a strike for three days, with fuel costs among their demands24.
So will the state retailers raise prices during the festive weeks? Can they afford not to? I don't know, and I won't pretend to. What I do know is that the exposure sits in every contract with automatic diesel pass-through.
The Western freight corridor now runs all the way from Dadri to JNPA, with double-stack container trains since 8th September26. Rail is growing: loading was up 5.4% in August, domestic containers 9.2%27. But it's still a small slice, with only 13.5% of JNPA's boxes leaving by rail in July25. Trucks carry the rest, and that pool is about to shrink. When Delhi's smog rules tighten to Stage III, BS-IV and older light and medium goods vehicles from outside are kept out, and their essential-goods exemption ends on 31st October28.
Trucks get scarce on Delhi–west coast freight exactly when everyone wants them. The corridor is the spare capacity this peak, but only for loads booked before November.
The lanes I'm watching
NH-10 Siliguri–GangtokAmber
Sikkim's one and only trunk road
Shut to all vehicles 9 pm to 6 am on the Sevoke–Rangpo stretch, tonight to 15th October and 26th October–5th November29.
NH-6 to Shillong and SilcharAmber
Barak Valley, Mizoram, Tripura
Heavy rain in places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura today30, so I'm holding it Amber till 9th October (Friday).
NH-44 Jammu–SrinagarAmber
Kashmir's all-weather link
Single-lane stretches at Chenani–Udhampur and Magarkot–Khooni Nallah, tankers allowed only at night, which isn't advisable31.
NH-16 through OdishaRed
East coast trunk, Kolkata–Chennai
Red tomorrow for the bandh, then Amber while the trucks clear.
Kerala ghats into IdukkiAmber
Kochi–Munnar–Kumily roads
Rain across the state till 11th October, heavy in places on 9th and 10th30.
Measured this morning
City roads against usual, daily, 30 Sep–6 Oct7amber = 10+ over
Delhi diesel at the state retailers' pumps is still ₹95.20 on 14th October (Wednesday)33.
IMD's Andaman Sea low forms by 14th October, but no depression forms in the Bay before 16th October10.
Kolkata's roads run more than 10 points above usual on at least four of the seven Puja curb days, 13th–19th October7.
How I rate this, and what I can't see
I rate against the season, because a sale week is never going to look like a quiet week in April, right? A Red road drags down the hubs at both ends, and a hub stays Amber about two days after its cause clears, longer after a Red. Air shows up only with measured numbers (AAI, WorldACD). Confidence is High when the facts are dated and primary or measured, Medium when they rest on a proxy or a forecast.
Normal sale weeks come from Google searches for the Delhivery, Ekart, Blue Dart and DTDC helplines, each city read from its state: the busiest week in the four after Amazon's sale opens, against a normal week in the eight before. Mind you, they count customers chasing parcels, not late parcels. Based on my experience in e-commerce & logistics, it's partly driven by anticipatory anxiety rather than actual delayed status. If I am wrong, we'll find out in the subsequent weeks.
Built from public sources only. The ratings are my judgement on the likelihood of on-time delivery or cost-impact, not measured service levels or actual cost estimates. Map boundaries: DataMeet, CC BY 4.0.