Belagavi's cane farmers spent the night on NH-48 at three toll plazas and say they aren't leaving, so the Pune–Bengaluru highway stays shut to trucks for a second day1. At Paradip, iron-ore trucks queue 15–20 km for a slot with no room and no ships2. And the rate cards have started moving: Blue Dart goes up 9–12% in January3, and smaller carriers aren't waiting that long.
Green the sale season as usual, which can still be busy
Amber something beyond the season is slowing freight
Red something is stopping freight across a state or a route
North
Amber
Delhi ran about 20 points over its usual traffic from 7 am to 9 pm yesterday7, the day after Monday's rain, so the backlog is still working through. Delhi and Gurugram deliveries keep running late until the roads settle.
West
Amber
Raju Shetti's farmers sat down at the Kognoli toll plaza on the Maharashtra–Karnataka border yesterday, said they won't leave the highway till the cane price is settled, and Belagavi's administration asked heavy vehicles to stay off it8. So Kolhapur and Pune loads for the south wait at the border or take the police detours.
South
Red
The NH-48 blockade in Belagavi held through the night, and farmers blocked NH-50 in Vijayapura too. Around Hubballi, police sent heavy vehicles by Gokul Road and the Tarihal underbridge, and The Hindu says they had a hard time of it9. So Pune–Bengaluru freight is stopped in Belagavi and slow through Dharwad. In Kerala, 18 Karipur flights to Riyadh and Jeddah were cancelled on Sunday and Monday, stopping more than 30 tonnes a day of fruit and vegetable exports10, so Gulf-bound produce from Kerala and Tamil Nadu waits or sells locally.
East
Amber
Paradip handled about 435,000 tonnes yesterday against 474,000 on the same day last year11, and India's iron-ore exports fell to 0.7 million tonnes in September, the lowest in almost four years12, so ore trucks for the port wait on the road for days. Kolkata's Puja curbs are the usual strain, so deliveries into the city run in their set hours, no slower than the season13.
Northeast
Amber
Assam's coke trucks are still held at the Bengal border, and The Lallantop reports calcining plants cutting output, leaving aluminium makers such as NALCO, Hindalco and Vedanta, and graphite electrode makers, short of raw material14. So the plants downstream keep running on less until Bengal lets the trucks go.
Central
Green
No delay beyond the season.
Network Insights
1Who pays for the festive surcharge?
High confidence
Carriers have started passing their costs on. Blue Dart raises domestic prices 9–12% from 1st January, though a customer who signs up before 31st December is exempt3. Emiza, a Mumbai warehousing firm, has raised prices 10–15% in recent months, citing labour; Zippee is weighing festive surcharges where demand warrants, with its volumes up 4.5 times this season; and Shiprocket says a failed delivery costs ₹40–60 to bring back and ₹15–25 to repack, so a delivered order can cost ₹85–110 in all15.
The January rise is a line in next year's contract. The returns are paid this month, on every order that doesn't land, and low-ticket D2C brands selling on cash on delivery carry most of it.
CMA CGM raises its rates from North Europe to India for cargo loaded from 1st November: US$975 for a 20-foot box to Mundra and US$900 for a 40-foot, before terminal, peak-season and security charges. Is that a lot? Against its own rate from April, US$810 and US$720 to the subcontinent's main ports, it's about a fifth to a quarter more, though April's notice named the region rather than Mundra, so it isn't an exact like-for-like17. Can a buyer in a hurry switch to air? Well, air is rising too. TAC Index has Frankfurt's outbound air rates 47.7% above last year and London Heathrow's 44.7%, both up again this week on routes that include India, with jet fuel 111.2% dearer than a year ago and India's own outbound space still tight16. So when both modes go up together, there's no cheaper lane to move the urgent load to.
Factories that run on European parts, machines and chemicals are at risk of impact: a November box costs more by sea, and pulling it forward by air costs more still. A landed-cost budget set before this month is the one that eats it.
3Amazon's new sort centres skip the metros
Medium confidence
Share of Amazon's new sites for this sale outside the metros, %18
Sort centres6 of 6
Fulfilment centres7 of 20
Amazon says it has added 20 fulfilment centres, six sort centres and about 150 delivery stations for this sale, with storage up 50% to 64 million cubic feet; seven of the new fulfilment centres and all six sort centres are outside the metros, and Amazon Now went from 60 cities to more than 120 in two weeks18. Why does it matter where a sort centre sits? Because a parcel sorted in a big metro hub picks up that hub's queues, and this week a Pune load for Bengaluru is sitting on NH-48. Where there is no fulfilment centre nearby, Amazon says it moves stock closer by rail and air18. Whether the new sites are actually fully staffed in sale weeks is yet to be seen.
For sellers on the marketplace, a small-town order now has a shorter path that skips more of the shared metro hubs. A brand shipping on its own carrier still goes through those hubs, and its parcels are the ones held when a highway shuts.
The lanes I'm watching
NH-48 Pune–BengaluruRed
Hattaragi, Hirebagewadi, Kognoli
Farmers cooked and slept on the road at all three toll points overnight, with kilometres of goods vehicles standing1; on Tuesday every heavy vehicle was stopped19. They say they stay till the price is met, so trucks between Pune and Bengaluru wait in the queue or don't set out.
NH-50 Solapur–ChitradurgaAmber
Yalagar Cross, Vijayapura
Farmers blocked it at Yalagar Cross on Tuesday, with the Vijayapura–Kalaburagi road at Sindagi and the Vijayapura–Athani road at Tikota, and say the blockades go on until the governments respond20. Trucks between Solapur and Hubballi can be held wherever a blockade sits.
NH-53 Paradip–ChandikholeAmber
Odisha's ore road to the port
The New Indian Express reports thousands of iron-ore trucks stranded since 1st October, queued 15–20 km towards Bhutmundai and Marshaghai, because JSW's plot at the port is full and its ships haven't come2. Other freight on the road to Paradip runs slow past the queue.
NH-27 at SrirampurAmber
The Northeast's road out
More than 300 trucks of Assam coke, held since 17th September with their GST papers complete; transporters pay ₹4 lakh to ₹5 lakh a day in detention, over ₹1 crore so far14.
NH-157 Kalinga ghatAmber
Ganjam to Kandhamal, Odisha
Shut nearly 20 days, several buses have stopped running, and light vehicles get through only 10–15 days after repairs finish21. Berhampur–Phulbani trucks take the long way round.
NH-10 Siliguri–GangtokAmber
Sikkim's one trunk road
Sevoke–Rangpo night closures end tomorrow and return from 26th October to 5th November22; till then, late loads wait at Siliguri for morning.
Measured this morning
City roads against usual, daily, 7–13 Oct7amber = 10+ over
Over the whole of yesterday Kolkata ran 16 points over usual and Delhi 13; counting only 7 am to 9 pm, it's about 23 and 20, the two busiest of the ten cities. Bengaluru ran just 5 over, so the NH-48 blockade isn't on the city's own roads; it's the trucks bound for the city that wait. From 8 am to 1 pm today Kolkata is running 16 over, Mumbai 15 and Delhi 13.
Kolkata+16
Delhi+13
Mumbai+9
Chennai+7
Pune+6
Hyderabad+6
Ahmedabad+4
Bengaluru+4
Kochi+2
Jaipur+2
Sources
Built from public sources only. The ratings are my judgement on the likelihood of on-time delivery or cost-impact, not measured service levels or actual cost estimates. Confidence is High when the facts are dated and primary or measured, Medium when they rest on a proxy or a forecast. If I am wrong, we'll find out in the subsequent weeks. Map boundaries: DataMeet, CC BY 4.0.