Redseer reckons shoppers placed 80 to 90 million orders in the sale's first two days, two-thirds of them from smaller towns and villages1, and this is the week those parcels reach the doorstep, so the strain moves from the hubs to the last mile. Kolkata's Puja curbs start tomorrow, and Karnataka's cane farmers say they'll block highways from tomorrow too, if today's talks in Delhi fail2. And diesel just got ₹3 dearer at Jio-bp's pumps, the second private retailer to raise prices in ten days3.
Since Edition 001: the East is back to Green with the bandh and Mahalaya behind it; the Northeast is Amber for the trucks held at the Bengal border, and the North for today's rain and protest diversions. Edition 001's three calls fall due this week, so I'll score them next Monday.
How's each region holding up?
Dates to watch
Mon 12 Oct
Central Delhi protest diversions
12–15 Oct
NH-10 night closures
Tue 13 Oct
Karnataka cane farmers' blockade threat
13–24 Oct
Kolkata Puja curbs and immersions
26–27 Oct
Kolkata Puja curbs and immersions, again
26 Oct–5 Nov
NH-10 night closures, again
Sat 31 Oct
Delhi's BS-IV exemption ends
Green the sale season as usual, which can still be busy
Amber something beyond the season is slowing freight
Red something is stopping freight across a state or a route
North
Amber
Delhi woke up to a red alert for heavy rain in all 11 districts4, on a third day of protest diversions around central Delhi5, and its roads ran 15 to 23 points over usual from 8 am, with up to 139 km of jams6. That's beyond the season, so deliveries and pickups across Delhi run late today. Lucknow is flooded for a 15th day7, and deliveries there wait for the water.
West
Green
JNPA's yard was 62% full this morning, with 2,268 boxes waiting for trains inland, up from 1,715 on Saturday8, so importers may wait longer for a train out. A week of logs is too short to call that a trend.
South
Green
If today's cane talks in Delhi fail, farmers block national highways at Karnataka's district headquarters from tomorrow, and trucks on Bengaluru–Pune and Bengaluru–Hyderabad could be held for hours. Elsewhere, no delay beyond the season.
East
Green
Kolkata's Puja curbs start tomorrow, the usual Puja strain: deliveries into the city in set hours, port boxes four hours a day till the 19th. With the sale's small-town orders arriving the same week, how late does an East parcel run? I'd expect a day or two. Odisha's Kalinga ghat road has been shut for 19 days, so Ganjam–Kandhamal freight takes the long way round.
Northeast
Amber
No report from the Bengal border since Friday, so I count the trucks there as still held. Every truck stuck leaving Assam can't come back with the next load, so truck space into the Northeast stays tight.
Central
Green
NH-30 comes off my list, with nothing new since Friday's Kabirdham blockade, and I found no delay beyond the usual sale strain.
Decisions for the week ahead, 12–18 Oct
From tomorrow till the 19th, Kolkata's goods vehicles get set hours, port trucks only noon to 4 pm, and none at all through the immersion days from the 20th9, in the same week the sale's orders reach the East's small towns. The orders are already placed, so the one lever left is what's sitting inside the city before the gates narrow. Which Kolkata-bound loads, and which port boxes, go in before the curbs start on 13th October (Tuesday)?
Delhi lets in BS-IV goods vehicles registered outside the city only till 31st October; after that, even essential supplies need BS-VI, CNG, LNG or electric trucks10. Transporters had hoped for an extension, and until one is actually announced I'd plan as if there isn't one, because finding compliant trucks in the last fortnight before Diwali is a lot harder than finding them this week. How much of your Delhi-bound fleet, your own and your transporters', is BS-IV, and do you line up the replacements this week?
Network Insights
1Fourteen days of orders, placed in two
Festive sale, first-mile to last-mile
Medium confidence
Redseer estimates ₹24,000 crore of goods and 80 to 90 million orders across all platforms in the sale's first two days, about 14 times the orders of a normal day; two-thirds of the 60 to 65 million shoppers were from Tier 2 towns and rural areas, and first-time shoppers doubled on last year1. Meesho says its day-one orders were up about 75% on last year, and its sellers in Tier 4 and smaller towns doubled their transactions11. So where are those parcels now? Picked up over the weekend, sorted at the receiving hubs, and, if a first-mile surge reaches the doorstep three or four days later as it usually does, out for delivery this week. The bit that actually worries me is the doubling of first-time shoppers. A first-time buyer is an address and a phone number nobody has delivered to before.
So this week, late deliveries are most likely in small towns and to first-time buyers, and the cost shows up as reattempts, cancelled cash-on-delivery orders and returns, for whoever promised a date before seeing where the orders came from.
2Two prices for the same diesel
Truck fuel, at private and state pumps
Amber · High cost of delay · High confidence
Jio-bp raised diesel by ₹3 a litre from 6 am yesterday, to about ₹97.75 in Haryana, ten days after Nayara did the same, while Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCL held their prices3. The state retailers run 90% of the country's pumps and already cap diesel at 200 litres a sale, and a Punjab dealer told Mint that Jio-bp's own 50-litre cap may become irrelevant, as customers move to other retailers12. So where does a truck fill up now? At the cheaper state pump, of course, which moves the demand onto the pumps that are already rationing, in the busiest month of the year.
₹3 on a ₹95 litre is about 3% on the fuel bill. A contract with a diesel clause passes that on, a fixed peak-season rate eats it, and if the state retailers move too, every truck rate in the country moves at once.
3A new tax line on doorstep delivery
GST on e-commerce deliveries
Medium confidence
The GST Council on Thursday recommended 5% GST, with no input credit, on delivery services booked through e-commerce platforms (courier and postal aside), paid by the platform where the delivery partner isn't registered, and 5% on delivering goods ordered online13. Local delivery mostly carries 18% today, so it reads like a cut13. Except the Council also wants to pull the exemption for goods transport agencies carrying online orders to unregistered buyers, and with no input credit, Trade Brains reckons the saving could be eaten up, or even end up as higher delivery charges14. When does it start? Not until it's notified, and no date has been set.
If it's notified as recommended, a platform paying 18% on deliveries by unregistered riders pays 5% instead but loses the input credit, and a transporter carrying online orders to unregistered buyers pays a tax it didn't before. Until the notification, nobody's delivery cost changes.
4Dearer boxes, billed later
Corrugated packaging
Medium confidence
BusinessLine reports that kraft paper, three-quarters of a corrugated box's cost, has gone up 25% in a few weeks, as imported waste paper got dearer with freight, the war and the rupee15. Box makers say they can't pass it on as fast: large customers take weeks or months to agree a new price15. So the box maker carries it through Diwali. Then it lands in the next contract.
Expect box suppliers to ask for more at the next renewal, after Diwali: kraft paper is three-quarters of a box's cost, so a 25% rise is roughly 19% on the box if they pass all of it on.
The lanes I'm watching
NH-27 at SrirampurAmber
The Northeast's road out, at the Bengal border
Hundreds of outbound coal and petroleum-coke trucks held at Srirampur and Buxirhat for several days as of Friday's report; Bengal Police cite papers, and the Barauni calciners, who say the e-way bills and invoices are in order, have asked the PMO to step in16. Until they move, petroleum coke for Bihar's calciners isn't arriving, and those trucks aren't free for loads back into Assam.
NH-157 Kalinga ghatAmber
Ganjam to Kandhamal, Odisha
Shut since heavy rain washed away part of the road on 24th September; Kandhamal's collector says light vehicles can pass 10 to 15 days after repairs finish, and last year the road was disrupted for about 42 days17. Till then, anything between Berhampur and Phulbani takes a long detour.
NH-10 Siliguri–GangtokAmber
Sikkim's one and only trunk road
Shut to all vehicles 9 pm to 6 am on the 52 km Sevoke–Rangpo stretch till Thursday, and again 26th October–5th November18. Sikkim gets its trucks by day only, so a load that misses the evening cut-off at Siliguri waits till morning.
Measured this morning
City roads against usual, daily, 5–11 Oct6amber = 10+ over
Sunday was quiet almost everywhere: Kolkata ran 8 points over usual, the most of the ten cities, and no other city was more than 4 over. This afternoon is busier. Kolkata ran 33 to 38 over, about where its weekday afternoons have sat all month in the sale, and Delhi 16 to 17 over after the morning's rain.
Kolkata+8
Ahmedabad+4
Chennai+3
Hyderabad+3
Delhi+3
Pune+2
Mumbai+1
Kochi+1
Bengaluru+1
Jaipur+0
Calls I'll check next week
The state retailers hold diesel prices through 19th October, while Jio-bp's and Nayara's stay ₹3 a litre higher12.
NH-157 over Kalinga ghat is still shut to trucks on 19th October17.
Delhi's BS-IV exemption has not been extended by 19th October10.
Sources
Built from public sources only. The ratings are my judgement on the likelihood of on-time delivery or cost-impact, not measured service levels or actual cost estimates. Confidence is High when the facts are dated and primary or measured, Medium when they rest on a proxy or a forecast. If I am wrong, we'll find out in the subsequent weeks. Map boundaries: DataMeet, CC BY 4.0.